03/27/2022
The following article comes directly from my newsletter this month. Benjamin Tal is my favourite economist who I follow and very much recommend.
BoC rate hike: What does CIBC's Tal think will happen next?
A busy spring is still in the cards for Canada’s housing market despite the Bank of Canada’s decision to hike its policy rate, according to a prominent economist – with any significant change only likely to be noted in the second half of 2022.
Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, told Canadian Mortgage Professional that he anticipated a return to a more normal market towards the end of the year, but that the Bank’s 0.25% rate increase on Wednesday likely wouldn’t slow down activity in the short-term.
“I think the [biggest] impact will be felt in the second half of the year. In fact, I still expect a relatively strong spring as people enter the market before rates start rising in a more significant way,” he said.
“Then I see a situation in which the market will relax, [and] people will move back to fixed as opposed to variable rates. Now, variable accounts for about 50% of origination – that will go back to normal.”
The Bank’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to 0.5%, marked its first rate change for nearly two years, and the first hike since 2018.
Tal said that while some observers might view it as a “hawkish” statement from the Bank, it was a relatively unsurprising announcement, particularly as the central bank had already indicated in its January release that rate increases were on the way.
The evolving crisis in Ukraine, where Russian forces have launched a savage assault in the past week, was cited by the Bank as a “major new source of uncertainty” that’s seen spikes in prices for oil and other commodities, with the potential to negatively impact global economic growth.
Could that give the Bank pause for thought about its intentions for further rate increases down the line in 2022? It’s unlikely, said Tal, although not impossible in the case of a major and unforeseen event.
“It was interesting to hear what they have to say about the situation in Ukraine,” he said. “The question is whether or not it’s a recessionary event or inflationary.
“I think the Bank of Canada is going to look at it as more inflationary, and therefore unless something really bad happens, like a cyberattack or something, there’s no reason for them to deviate from the plan to raise interest rates.”
The Bank welcomed some positive economic news in Wednesday’s announcement, noting that Canada’s economic growth had surpassed its expectations in the fourth quarter of 2022 and reinforcing its view that slack has been absorbed in the country’s economy.
While it said the recovery from Omicron-induced setbacks was well underway, it also emphasized that consumer price index (CPI) inflation remained well above its target, with inflation expected to be higher in the near term than initially expected.
For a free consultation please book an appointment on my site Www.torontoloftcondos.com OR
email me directly at [email protected]
to receive my monthly newsletter full of short easy to read timely articles on our RE market.