08/06/2023
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Iowa...northeastern
Missouri...west central Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061826Z - 062100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying scattered thunderstorm development is
possible by 3-5 PM CDT, including a few evolving supercell
structures posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...Stronger recent destabilization has been occurring
across parts of east central and northeastern Missouri, largely in
response to modest boundary-layer warming and further moistening.
This is generally focused along/southwest of a confluence zone,
extending to the southeast of a weak surface low centered over
western Iowa, which may slowly continue to shift into and across the
Mississippi River vicinity through late afternoon. As it does,
mixed-layer CAPE is forecast to increase in excess of 2000 J/kg,
with lingering mid-level inhibition slowly weakening.
At the same time, it appears that the exit region of a 50-60 kt,
cyclonic west-northwesterly mid-level jet (in the 700-500 mb layer)
will gradually overspread this axis of destabilization. Associated
mid/upper forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear
likely will contribute to thunderstorm initiation and
intensification, with the environment becoming conducive to evolving
supercell structures.
Due to modest to weak low-level hodographs, tornadic potential, at
least initially, remains somewhat unclear. However, given the moist
nature of the boundary-layer, a brief tornado or two may eventually
become possible as storms propagate southeastward, particularly
toward early evening when some strengthening of strengthening of
lower-level wind fields is forecast across west central into central
Illinois.