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Great NewsThe Pound can extend its recovery against the Dollar into the weekend as the bar to further U.S. Dollar streng...
20/05/2024

Great News

The Pound can extend its recovery against the Dollar into the weekend as the bar to further U.S. Dollar strength is set high, say analysts.

The U.S. non-farm payroll presents the first major test for the Dollar of May, and already markets are expecting another strong print as the economy extends a strong start to the the year.

The consensus expectation is for 240k new jobs, and Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, says a higher result could support the dollar again.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe Pound to Euro exchange rate could trade with a heavy tone through May as it becomes clear the Bank of Engl...
17/05/2024

Great News

The Pound to Euro exchange rate could trade with a heavy tone through May as it becomes clear the Bank of England will consider cutting interest rates in June.

The Bank's next interest rate decision is next Thursday. Interest rates will be kept unchanged at 5.25%, but economists expect it to signal impending rate cuts.

This is a clear risk to the Pound given the market is not prepared for early cuts. In fact, money market pricing shows the investment community is only really prepared for a first cut in August.

By David Miller

Great NewsDollar exchange rates were flattened by a decidedly soft U.S. jobs report that brings a Federal Reserve rate c...
17/05/2024

Great News

Dollar exchange rates were flattened by a decidedly soft U.S. jobs report that brings a Federal Reserve rate cut looming into sight.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate leapt above 1.26 (+0.54%) after non-farm payrolls increased 175K in April according to the BLS, down from March's 315K and undershooting expectations for 238K.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% from 3.8% while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month in April, down from the previous month's 0.3% and below expectations for 0.3%. The year-on-year rate fell from 4.1% to 3.9%.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe Pound to Euro exchange rate starts the new week bid as it bounces off the 'buy line' located near 1.1650, ...
17/05/2024

Great News

The Pound to Euro exchange rate starts the new week bid as it bounces off the 'buy line' located near 1.1650, but it could suffer a fall to April lows if this week's Bank of England guidance and forecasts point to a June interest rate cut.

Pound Sterling fell for four days in succession against the Euro last week as market expectations rose that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates before December. This Fed repricing had the knock-on effect of boosting expectations for Bank of England rate cuts, something that weighed heavily on Pound exchange rates.

Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report followed the midweek Federal Reserve policy decision that showed the Fed still believed the disinflation process would continue.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe Pound to Dollar exchange rate's late-week slump is an ominous sign and points to the potential for losses ...
17/05/2024

Great News

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate's late-week slump is an ominous sign and points to the potential for losses in the coming days.

Pound Sterling joined its G10 peers in surging higher in the wake of Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. job reportweaker-than-expected U.S. job report that raised the odds that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates before December.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate spiked to just above 1.26 but soon plopped back down to levels seen before the jobs print. This is despite other currencies maintaining their gains against the Dollar, which immediately signals GBP-specific weakness.

By David Miller

Great NewsInvestment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecasts profile for the British Pound, saying expectations for...
17/05/2024

Great News

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecasts profile for the British Pound, saying expectations for future UK interest rate levels are less supportive than was previously the case.

The downgrades come just days ahead of the Bank of England's May policy decision, which should reveal disagreements amongst senior policymakers as to the course interest rates should follow.

Analysts at the Wall Street bank say the Pound is caught in the middle of the unsupportive repricing of Bank of England policy expectations and supportive global market sentiment.

By David Miller

Great NewsPound Sterling continues to lose ground against the Euro in the run-up to Thursday's Bank of England decision....
17/05/2024

Great News

Pound Sterling continues to lose ground against the Euro in the run-up to Thursday's Bank of England decision.

Similar weakness has been seen in the days leading up to previous Bank of England decisions and speaks of investor nervousness of a Bank that has a tendency to err on the 'dovish' side. By this, we mean the Bank has often proven hesitant to raise interest rates when it needs to but is keen to cut rates at the first opportunity.

That first opportunity is coming closer, with the Bank of England's Governor and Deputy Governor recently giving speeches that raise the odds of a June interest rate cut.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe US dollar has almost erased its NFP losses as the US stock indices’ rally has stalled. Dovish expecta...
17/05/2024

Great News

The US dollar has almost erased its NFP losses as the US stock indices’ rally has stalled. Dovish expectations have taken centre stage but one has to acknowledge that the Fed needs a plethora of weak data prints to firmly open the door to a rate cut as soon as June.

The next key data release is the April inflation report, which will be published on Wednesday, May 15.

Fed members will continue to flood the newswires with comments as voters Jefferson, Collins and Cook are scheduled to speak later today.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe Bank of England won't cut interest rates until September say some economists, which means a 'hawkish' repr...
17/05/2024

Great News

The Bank of England won't cut interest rates until September say some economists, which means a 'hawkish' repricing in interest rate expectations must follow today's decision.

This would surprise markets that have increased odds of a mid-year rate cut, in turn supporting the Pound.

Markets are now positioned at 50/50 odds for the first rate hike to take place in June, and we note a high risk that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee verifies these bets by saying it is confident inflation will continue to fall.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe British Pound fell after another member of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee voted to cut inter...
17/05/2024

Great News

The British Pound fell after another member of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee voted to cut interest rates, and fresh guidance raised the odds of a June start date.

Dave Ramsden voted alongside Swati Dhingra to cut interest rates immediately, a sign that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is starting to err towards lower interest rates.

But, the statement issued by the Bank was largely unchanged from that issued in March, which signals lingering caution. "Monetary policy needs to be restrictive for an extended period of time until the risk of inflation becoming embedded above the 2% target dissipates," it said.

By David Miller

Great NewsThe British Pound has rallied against the Euro, Dollar and other currencies after UK economic growth rebounded...
17/05/2024

Great News

The British Pound has rallied against the Euro, Dollar and other currencies after UK economic growth rebounded strongly in the first quarter.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate rallied to 1.1630 after the ONS said UK GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024, outstripping consensus expectations for 0.4%.

"Wow. Big beat for the UK econony. I am feeling more comfortable about my growth estimate of 1.2% for 2024 vs consensus at 0.4%," says Simon French, an economist at Panmure Gordon.

By David Miller

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